Inflation has been a growing concern for the US economy since early 2022. The Fed is aiming to drive the overheated economy to a soft landing & is increasing interest rate to curb inflation pressure. In this article, we explore at the factors impacting inflation, the concept of rolling recessions & how the Federal Reserve is responding to inflation.
Introduction
On 14th February 2022, the Inflation data was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It stated that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.5% in January (seasonally adjusted basis). The same was increased by 0.1% in December.
For the last 12 months, the all-item index increased by 6.4% (without seasonal adjustment). This is the smallest increase in 12 months period since October 2021. This is the seventh consecutive month of easing inflation since its peak in June at 9.1% (which was the highest since 1981).
The Core Inflation (all items minus food & energy index) increased by 5.6% over the past 12 months – the smallest increase since December 2021. The Energy index inflation rose by 8.7% for the 12 months ending January. The food index inflation rose by 10.1% over the last year.
What is impacting the inflation
The January CPI data shows that transportation costs are showing volatility. The data shows that Gasoline increased by 2.4% in January, and was one of the major contributors to an increase in overall CPI for the month with an increase of 0.5%. Last Month (i.e. in December 2022) it fell by 7%. The Benchmark inflation for all items was at 6.4% for the past 12 months period and gasoline (at 1.5%) did not list on the top costs.
However, the fuel oil declined by 1.2% in January; though it was up by 27.7% for the past 12 months. New Vehicles inflation month on month has increased marginally by 0.2%. The same for the past 12 months ending January (i.e. till 30th January 2023) increased by 5.8%.
For the past 12 months period, other transportation categories including airfares jumped to 25.6%. Under this category, Motor Vehicle repairs increased by 23.1% while public transportation including airfares was up by 17.1% and motor vehicle insurance was raised by 14.7%.
Rolling Recession
One of the popular economic terms these days since a slowdown in the US in early 2022 is “Rolling Recessions”. These conditions in the U.S. economy may cause concern despite a strong job market.
But what is Rolling Recession?
When the economy may not have or say meet official recession (definition) but there will be sectors which feel like they are in contraction is called a “Rolling Recession” As one sector enters recovery, the slowdown will ‘Roll’ into another sector. Hence it is called Rolling Recession.
How does it affect the economy? For instance, we can take how it will be reflected in the job market. In terms of employment, it will be easier to get a job in certain industries and will be more difficult in other industries. Similarly, when it comes to the economy then thee will be some sectors which will thrive while other sectors may struggle.
The present state of the US economy is also somewhat facing the same condition. There may surge in employment in certain sectors while there may be a contraction or a tougher situation in other sectors.
Some researchers identified & claim that sectors like entrainment, media, information & technology, retail industries, financial services and real estate may witness easier recruitment as well as growth. Whereas sectors like oil & gas, health care, hospitality and accommodation may have a tough time in terms of both growth and recruitment – it means these sectors are unable to fill the vacancies fast enough.
Federal Reserve Fight against Inflation
The policymakers (here Federal Reserve mainly) are looking at all the economic indicators including the CPI data points to see whether the inflation is cooling to the series of eight interest. If Federal Reserve feels that the policy tightening is not working (in the way it desired) then they are forced to go for a more aggressive stance.
Last week Federal Reserve Chairmen Jerome Powell warned that the path of getting US inflation down this year is not going to be smooth but “probably going to be bumpy”.
This means as we stated earlier, Fed is committed to its Inflation target and not going to reduce the interest rate until the inflation touches the target range.
Lagged Effects and Federal Reserve Response
The lagged effects of a substantial increase in interest rate in 2022 to contain inflation pressure may take a toll on U.S. economic activity. This year the economy is expected to slow down further. Inflation is expected to moderate with strong labour markets and a decrease in wage pressure.
However, the risk of the recession remains the possibility that the Federal Reserve will aim to drive the overheated economy to a soft landing. The expectation on this line has increased in the past few months.
The reason for this expectation is the Federal Reserve’s actions or watch on Supercore Inflation. Since November 2022, the Federal Policy has focused more on this Supercore inflation rather than Core inflation. Many may be aware of CPI and Core Inflation and may not be aware of this Supercore Inflation. What is Supercore inflation?
Supercore Inflation
The Federal Reserve focuses on a smaller group of prices whose prices are highly stubborn or say constantly high. This comprises the price of services like plumbers, lawyers, barbers etc…, but excludes energy and housing.
The Federal Reserve is trying to estimate the pace of inflation along with the current as well as long-term state of the economy, using this new favourite inflation.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell stated that this Supercore inflation may be the most important category to understand future movements of core inflation.
Why Supercore Inflation is Important? Or Why Fed focuses on Supercore inflation?
The reason behind the Federal Reserve’s focus on Supercore inflation is targeting those indicators which fed can easily control through its interest rates tool.
The Fed focuses on those prices which are mainly driven by the cost of labour. The Fed can easily control this sector by adjusting its interest rates. Higher interest rates will slow down the economy, which will lead to slow hiring or layoffs & vice-versa. Whereas the price of goods is mainly affected due to global factors like supply chain logistics.
Since the pace of overall inflation has slowed down, now the Federal Reserve is focusing mainly on an unusual and more complex measure such as “Core services minus housing” – that’s the reason why it is mentioned as Supercore inflation.
Federal Reserve and Supercore Inflation
There are no standard or exact definitions for Supercore inflation. The Federal Reserve official looks at core inflation in three different measures – i) core goods, ii) housing services and iii) core services (excluding housing).
Among these three measures, the Federal Reserve’s eye is on the last measure (i.e. Core services) which is at times mentioned as Supercore. When one analyses the Personal Consumption Price Expenditure (PCE), Core goods and Core services, it is noticed that Core Services prices are stickier than Core goods and their inflation is rising for most of the years.
Overall, the Supercore Inflation is still partly raised because people are moving their spending from goods to services. The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates seven times recently, in an attempt to slow the economy and reduce inflation. Investors and analysts are really concerned that the increased interest rates might be the reason for US economy’s contraction. Some investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will pause hiking rates this year.
Many economists and experts believe that Federal Reserve may not stop or pause hiking this year, there are expectations that the interest rate hike may happen till it reaches 5.5% or even 6% this year and the pause will come after that. However, It is very difficult to predict when or where the Federal Reserve will stop the hike, as it mainly depends on how the economy responds to its policy moves.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve is focusing on the Supercore Inflation, which is a smaller group of prices that are highly stubborn. The Fed is aiming to drive the overheated economy to a soft landing & is increasing interest rates to contain inflation pressure. While investors & analysts are hoping that the Federal Reserve will pause the rate hikes this year, it remains to be seen where & when the Federal Reserve will stop the hikes, as it mainly depends on how the economy responds to its policy moves.
FAQs
What is Rolling Recession?
Rolling Recession is when the economy may not have or say meet official (definition of) recession, but there will be contraction in few sectors more than others. As one sector enters recovery, the slowdown will ‘Roll’ into another sector. Hence Rolling Recession.
What is Supercore Inflation?
Supercore Inflation is a smaller group of prices whose prices are highly stubborn or say constantly high. It comprises the price of services like plumbers, lawyers, barbers etc., but excludes energy & housing.
What is the Federal Reserve aiming to do?
The Federal Reserve is aiming to drive the overheated economy to a soft landing & is increasing interest rates to contain inflation pressure.
What is the impact of increasing interest rates?
Increasing interest rates will certainly slow down the economy, which will automatically lead to slow hiring or layoffs & vice-versa.
What is the Federal Reserve’s focus on Supercore inflation?
The Federal Reserve is focusing on Supercore inflation as it is targeting those indicators which it can easily control through its interest rates tool.
What is the Federal Reserve’s current policy stance?
The Federal Policy is currently focused more on Supercore inflation rather than Core inflation.