CBO 2026–2036 Fiscal Outlook: Is the US on the Verge of a Sovereign Stagnation Trap in 2026?
The Congressional Budget Office projects that the United States will run budget deficits rising from about $1.8–$1.9 trillion (around 5.8% of GDP) in 2025–2026 to approximately $3.1 trillion (6.7% of GDP) by 2036. Over the full decade, deficits are expected to total roughly $24.4 trillion — about twice the level considered sustainable by many economists.